IEA-亚洲将引领天然气需求的复苏集成IC

据6月11日Petroleum Economist报道，与煤炭和石油相比，天然气对疫情的影响将更具弹性，但并不是说能避免受影响，国际能源署预测，2020年天然气需求将出现有史以来最大降幅。

根据国际能源署今天发布的五年天然气市场预测显示，由于2019疫情影响和冬季异常温和气候，2020年全球天然气需求预计将下降4%，即1500亿美元。四分之三的削减将发生在欧洲、北美、亚洲和欧亚大陆等成熟市场。

根据国际能源机构执行主任法提赫·比罗尔的说法，在中国和印度的政策推动下，需求预计将在2021年和2022年出现反弹，但不会恢复到以往的水平。该机构预计，与大流行前的相比，到2025年，需求将减少750亿立方米/年。

根据数据，2020年第一季度天然气消费量同比增长1.6%。3月和4月工业活动的逐步重启对天然气消费的影响有限，因为世界其它地区的封锁大幅降低了对出口商品的需求。

欧洲是受影响最严重的地区，到目前为止，同比下降了7%，主要原因是几个国家的限制措施，因为其发电部门占总需求降幅的一半。

短期来看，由于需求减少，供应难以找到市场，主要现货价格指数跌至历史低点，而油价暴跌打击了长期与石油挂钩供应合同的收入——尽管最近几周油价出现了部分回升。国际能源署表示，随着现货指数继续走向新低，一些供应商正面临亏损。

中短期来看，北美、非洲和俄罗斯在的项目在过去几年陆续上线，项目数量不断攀升，需求低于预期的情况将更加严重。仅在2019年就新增了960亿立方米的额定产能。报告称，这种供需错位给确保生产来源多样化和全球供应安全的未来投资带来挑战。

但并非砖机所有天然气需求的不确定性都是负面的。低油价继续推动发电行业改用燃料，从煤炭转向天然气是去年推动能源消费增长的最大因素，每年增加了逾550亿立方米。在美国，燃气发电再创新高，占总发电量的38%，而燃煤发电则大幅下降，这一趋势一直持续到2020年。

根据国际能源署的数据，印度的天然气消耗量在2020年第一季度同比增长了约10%，但在3月25日实行全国封锁后急剧下降。初步数据显示，四月份的消费量同比下降了25%。小型工业和用于运输的压缩天然气分销是受冲击最严重的部门，而燃气发电增长了14%——尽管电力需求下降了24%，因为更便宜的进口天然气满足了高峰需求。

5月份逐步取消限制使印度的化工厂和下游工业得以重新开工，这应该会导致天然气消费的反弹。而且，如果全球天然气价格长期保持低位，对价格敏感的亚洲市场在增加天然气使用量方面可能处于特别有利的地位。

洪伟立 摘译自 Petroleum Economist

原文如下：

Asia to lead gas demand recovery – IEA

Gas will be more resilient to the effects of Covid-19 than coal and oil but is “far from immune”, says the IEA, as it forecasts the largest-ever demand decline in 2020

Global demand for natural gas is forecast to fall by 4pc, or 150bn m3, in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and “an exceptionally mild winter”, according to the IEA’s five-year gas market forecast, released today. Three-quarters of this slump will be in the mature markets of Europe, North America, and Asia and Eurasia.

Demand is expected to bounce back in 2021 and 2022—led by policy-driven growth in China and India—but it will not be a return to business as usual, according to the IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol. The agency expects the Covid-19 crisis to result in 75bn m3/yr of lost demand by 2025 compared with pre-pandemic特种海鲜 forecasts.

As of early June, all major gas markets have experienced a fall in demand or, in the case of China, much more sluggish growth than before. According to China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), apparent gas consumption increased by 1.6pc year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. The progressive restart of industrial activity in March and April had a limited impact on gas use as lockdowns in other parts of the world sharply reduced demand for exported goods.

Europe has been the hardest hit region, with a 7pc year-on-year decline so far in 2020, mainly due to nationwide lockdowns in several countries. Its power generation sector accounts for half of the total demand decline.

Price challenges

In the short term, supplies struggling to find markets amid reduced demand have pressured major spot price indices to record lows, while collapsing oil prices have hit revenues from long-term oil-indexed supply contracts—although recent weeks have seen a partial oil price recovery. As spot indices continue to explore new lows, some suppliers are facing negative netbacks, says the IEA.

Over the short-to-medium term, the lower-than-expected demand will be compounded by the continuing ramp-up to plateau levels of projects in North America, Africa and Russia that have come online in the last few years. New nameplate capacity of 96bn m3/yr was added in 2019 alone. This supply-demand mismatch “cast[s] a shadow over the future investments needed to ensure the renewal of production sources and global security of supply”, says the report.

But not all gas demand uncertainties are to the downside. Low prices continue to drive fuel switching in power generation, with switching from coal to natural gas the largest single contributor to consumption growth last year, accounting for over 55bn m3/yr of additional demand. In the US, gas-fired power generation reached a new high, rising to a record share of 38pc of total generation while coal burn declined sharply, and the trend has continued into 2020.

Asian promise

India’s gas consumption rose by some 10pc year-on-year during the first quarter of 2020 but fell sharply after a nationwide lockdown was imposed on 25 March, according to IEA figures. Preliminary data suggests consumption was down by 25pc year-on-year in April. Small industry and compressed natural gas distribution for transport were the hardest hit sectors, while gas-fired power generation was up by 14pc—despite a 24pc fall in electricity demand—as cheaper gas imports were used to meet peak demand.

The progressive lifting of restrictions in May allowed Indian chemical plants, factories and downstream industries to restart, which should lead to a rebound in gas consumption. And, if global gas prices remain lower for l砻谷机onger, price-sensitive Asian markets could be particularly well-placed to up their gas use at the expense of competing fuels.